Timeline: Year 14 or 15

Appendix: Advice and Suggestions

Note: These e-mails are included here for background information. They are referred to by Tribune Nevin in Chapter One.

From: Tribune Leo Nevin, Head of Kindertransport Program

To: Sub-Decurion Nicholas Kavanagh

Subject: Issues Concerning Escardis

Sub-Decurion,

We are getting indications that the Arab League may approach us shortly to negotiate carrying some of their people from Earth to their colony on Escardis. With the Swarm already here, and the Salah al-Din returning to Escardis, they no longer have their own transport capability. Either they all stay on Earth and fight, or they try to get more colonists to Escardis on our ships.

Since you worked with the Arabs during the Salah al-Din's last visit, I would like to pick your brains for ideas and suggestions about both the negotiations and the actual transfer, assuming any negotiations are successful.

Nevin

From: Sub-Decurion Nicholas Kavanagh

To: Tribune Leo Nevin

Subject: Re: Issues Concerning Escardis

Tribune,

1. The Negotiations

I think it is worth negotiating seriously with the Arabs. At most their colony can absorb only a few thousand more people, so the numbers involved will not be large; perhaps ten or fifteen thousand at most. Without the help of Confederacy technology, their ability to assimilate new colonists on Escardis is strictly limited. Removing so few people from Earth should not greatly impact the ability of those left behind to fight the Swarm. There are also some potential advantages for ourselves, such as a small increase in the genetic diversity of the Diaspora.

I don't think that the Arabs will want to see us as offering them pity or a consolation prize, so we will need to charge them a price for our services. I suggest starting negotiations at two concubines for us in payment for every one of their people we carry. We can allow them to negotiate us down to 1.5:1 or even 1:1 if necessary.

Assuming that Escardis takes 15,000 colonists, we would gain 30,000 new people, mostly concubines. We have the capacity on our normal colony transports to absorb that number: 30,000 people is 12% of a single Cube Ship, and the load would be spread over several years. Maybe something like 1% each of three Cube Ship journeys per year for four years. That would also allow us to disperse the Arabs among different colonies, rather than concentrating them all in one place. Obviously these rough estimates need to be reworked once we have better figures available. As I explain below, I see our share as being primarily female concubines and dependents. Adult and near-adult males would normally stay behind to fight the Swarm if they are not going to Escardis.

Related to numbers, there may be tension between Escardis, which can only accept limited additional population, and the Arab League, who will likely want to send as many new colonists as possible, particularly those from influential families. In that case, we may be able to offer our services as honest brokers. In any case we will have to pass messages for them between Earth and our station orbiting Escardis. The Salah al-Din is currently in transit with 4,500 new colonists who will also need to be absorbed. That may reduce the numbers Escardis will want us to ship to them until after the Salah al-Din has arrived.

We should ensure that we have the right to offer the option of a place in the Confederacy to any of the people they wish to send to Escardis. Given that we will already have numerous concubines as part of their payment, we would only make such an offer to sponsor level individuals. We already sort sponsors in the Kindertransport program, rejecting those who would not be suitable. In this case we could ship those we reject to Escardis, AIs permitting, rather than leaving them on Earth. I would be reluctant to see too many suitable sponsors slip through our fingers. Obviously we would only take those who accepted our offer.

They will not want us selecting people for their colony, so I suggest that they do the initial choice of who they wish to send, together with a list of alternates. We must retain the right to reject any on the main list, filling the gaps with suitable alternates. We will only work from their lists. We can provide guidance – no post-menopausal women for example – but I think the initial selection is better left to the Arabs. Escardis is their colony after all. We need to explain the restrictions the AIs put on who we can ship away from Earth, so they are aware of the limitations on what we can do for them. For example, the AIs are likely to be unhappy about shipping anyone with an 'all infidels must die' mindset off Earth. They would be seen as a danger to the wider Confederacy, given that the Arabs have their own spaceship.

We should confirm whether or not the Arabs want to send only intact families to Escardis. If we reject one member, they may want to withdraw the entire family from consideration. That is a decision for them, not for us, so we can go along with their preference.

I see a broadly similar process for the concubines we will be taking for our own colonies. They will choose who to offer us, and we will decide who to take from the selection they provide. Again they can supply a list of alternates to replace those we reject from the main list. We can be stricter with the guidance for this group. Basically I see us putting them through the same initial processing we use for Kindertransport candidates, though there are likely to be proportionately more adults. The emphasis will be on concubine females, together with a few sponsors of both sexes. Male concubines are not useful to us and male dependents age eleven and over will be rejected if their CAP estimate is not up to scratch, as we already do in the Kindertransport program.

I am not sure that we want to have most of these women in the Kindertransport program. There, they would each be influencing seven children, and I do not think that they would all be sufficiently knowledgeable about the Confederacy. It might be best if the bulk of them go into the existing concubine pools on the moon, so they are more directly under the control of the Civil Service or a sponsor. The Arabs have put out a lot of misleading information about us to their people. We want to counter that as quickly as possible. That is another point to negotiate on; they could rein in their anti-Confederacy propaganda.

2. Transfer to Escardis

Given that reception facilities on Escardis are likely to be limited, and the probable numbers involved, we should use Auroras to do the transfer, since Kilopods and Cube Ships are too large. One pod would be reserved for the CSO in charge of concubines and the bulk of the remaining 95 pods would be in the usual colony transport configuration. The CSO pod could be the same as the CSO pod on a Kindertransport ship, including the additional facilities that may prove useful during the voyage. Allowing one family per remaining pod, and assuming that the families comprise one husband, four wives plus any dependents, that would be 95 x 5 = 475 adult colonists per ship. The number of passengers could be increased by utilizing some Kindertransport-style pods with up to 24 adults bunked in each. A few such pods will probably be needed anyway, for reasons I outline below.

At about five hundred adults per journey, I estimate two or three trips in each of the first two years, possibly increasing to three or four trips annually after the Salah al-Din's passengers have been absorbed. With a relatively small load on each ship, we can reduce the strain on Escardis by not having too many people arriving at once. Arrivals can be scheduled three to six months apart. Obviously, we need to consult with the authorities on Escardis about the timing of the transfers.

Five hundred adults is within the capacity of the Aurora messes and replicators to handle. Obviously non-halal food, such as pork and alcohol, would not be allowed for passengers. The Arabs doubtless can provide a suitable range of halal food for us to scan in. The templates could be made available to any others who wish it, such as their people we accept for our own colonies and Muslims extracted from elsewhere.

Escardis does not have Confederacy technology, such as replicators. Hence, it is probable that the passengers will have more luggage with them than on a normal colony transport. If necessary, we could temporarily remove the sleep trainers from the pods to provide additional luggage space.

All this assumes that the AIs can be persuaded to carry everyone. I have an initial look at possible issues and their resolutions below. Obviously the AIs will have input into who we select for transport to Escardis and we will need to work within their requirements.

3. Potential Issues

These points primarily apply to transfers from Earth to Escardis.

3.1 AIs

The AIs will not allow any people they consider a potential danger to the wider Confederacy to be taken off Earth. We may be able to persuade them that Escardis will be sufficiently isolated not to pose a danger, but we cannot rely on that. It may be that we will have to refuse to carry all such people. This is not an issue with the people we accept into the Confederacy; if the AIs don't want them, then we don't want them either.

We can offer sponsors among those travelling to Escardis, if there are any, the option of joining the Confederacy, but some will elect to go to Escardis. For planning purposes we should assume that there will be some sponsors on board each trip to Escardis. If it turns out that there are none, then we can simplify our plans accordingly.

The bulk of the people we transfer are likely to be concubines and dependents. It will be easier if we can arrange things to retain existing family structures, so I suggest that every concubine on board, males as well as females, be assigned to the Civil Service Officer for the duration of the journey. The CSO can allow the husband in every family temporary limited rights over his four wives. These would include the right to give orders and to inflict punishment, but not the right to execute, which would be reserved for the CSO. That preserves the existing family structure while according with Confederacy practice.

I suspect it would be too complex trying to juggle a 6.5 male sponsor with two slots and four wives. Simpler to have all four wives treated equally, which is also in accordance with Islamic law. Such a sponsor would have no concubines of his own, but have the temporary loan of his four wives from the ship's CSO. Again, all powers except execution would be delegated to the husband by the CSO.

3.2 Female Sponsors

There is a risk that a concubine husband with a sponsor wife will have to be executed if he is with his wife for the journey. I propose that we have a few women-only pods where such wives can stay for the duration. That will avert the danger to her husband. Older male dependents can stay with the husband and his other wives. Younger dependents can be in either pod. We need to explain this point to the Arabs so their people are prepared for a temporary separation.

We can use a standard Kindertransport pod, though probably not at full capacity. Maybe about fifteen women would be a reasonable load since there will not be as many children. This can be varied as required for each journey and once we have some experience of what works.

With 500 adult passengers, 400 will be female. At 5% sponsors, that is around 20 sponsor level females. That would require two Kindertransport-style pods to hold them comfortably, given that there may be dependents and we do not want to overcrowd them.

3.3 Young Wives

We can advise the Arabs that they should not select any wives under fourteen, and we should institute a policy of automatically rejecting all such wives. If neither is possible, then we should temporarily separate under-age wives from their husbands. They can travel in a women-only pod to avoid the risk of having to execute their husband. If the Arabs follow their previous practice and conscript new wives from schools and universities, we can point out that all such wives should be at least fourteen. Again, we need to give advance warning so they can prepare their people for a temporary separation.

3.4 Pregnancy

Where a woman is too near term we should defer her journey to a later date, after the birth. Medical capacity on board an Aurora is limited and we do not want to overstrain it. Again, this can be part of the advice we give the Arabs about who to offer for selection. This is not an issue for those destined for the Confederacy since we can temporarily hold them on the moon, where there are ample facilities.

3.5 CAP Tests

It is probably not worth CAP testing any dependent who turns fourteen on the way to Escardis. Their test can be deferred until 'later in the year'. Testing would be possible if required. Arrangements similar to those on a Kindertransport ship could be made for new sponsors who were suitable, and who wished to join the Confederacy. Those who did not wish to join the Confederacy would probably have to be segregated to avoid the danger of having to execute concubine parents. Overall it is simpler not to administer the tests, since the likely gains for the Confederacy are minimal.

3.6 Unmarried Passengers

Any unmarried women can be included in the previously mentioned women-only pods. If required, we can set up men-only pods to carry unmarried men. Best to have the men-only pods in the opposite half of the ship from the women-only pods so the unmarried people of both sexes don't mix in the mess. The same should apply to the husbands of sponsor and under-fourteen wives; if possible place them in the opposite half of the ship from the women.

3.7 Discipline

Normal issue stingers will be available to crew, Marines and the CSO. The standard Kindertransport CSO pod includes some punishment cells, and the ship's brig is also available. Execution is allowed, though recycling of bodies should be delayed until after the passengers have disembarked, due to Muslim dietary laws – human flesh is forbidden. This may require keeping a prisoner alive for longer than usual before execution.

3.8 Marines

Given Muslim sensibilities about women mixing with non-family men, there should be a reasonable proportion of women in the Marine complement on board, particularly in the half of the ship containing the women-only pods. Ideally all Marines and crew should have some fluency in Arabic. If this is not possible, then AI translation will have to suffice.

Consideration may be given to requiring female Marines and crew to wear a headscarf in addition to their uniform when in passenger areas.

3.9 Crew Concubines

There is no point in needlessly offending our passengers. Crew concubines, both male and female, must be covered neck to wrist to ankle while in the passenger areas of the ship such as the transporter rooms, messes or medical bay. A loose-fitting coverall in an opaque fabric would be suitable. In addition, female concubines must wear a headscarf while in the passenger areas.

Kavanagh